Ahead of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections, keeping food prices under check has emerged as one of the topmost priorities for the government. Food prices would likely have a bearing on the preferences of voters. In the past, there have been instances when governments have been voted out over rising food inflation.
Sectors with positive growth during the month include rice, iron ore, oil seeds, oil meals, meat, dairy and poultry products, pharmaceuticals, coffee, engineering goods, and plastic.
Every time the Indian economy has faced headwinds due to international developments, the oil sector has played a crucial role, explains A K Bhattacharya.
Operating margins have been the primary driver of corporate earnings in India in recent quarters, despite revenue growth suffering from weak consumer demand. Companies across sectors have reported a sharp improvement in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins over the past two years, benefiting from lower commodity and energy prices. Higher margins more than compensated for slower revenue growth, resulting in double-digit growth in net profit for five consecutive quarters.
The country's exports grew 5.37 per cent year-on-year to $27.24 billion in January 2021, mainly driven by healthy growth in pharma and engineering sectors, according to provisional data of the commerce ministry. Trade deficit during the month narrowed to $14.75 billion from $15.3 billion in January 2020. It was $15.44 billion in December 2020. Imports in January 2021 rose 2 per cent to $42 billion.
Import segments which recorded negative growth include gold, silver, transport equipment, coal, fertiliser, machinery and machine tools. However, exports of oil seeds, coffee, rice, tobacco, spices, pharma, and chemicals reported positive growth in June.
India's exports rose marginally to $27.15 billion in December 2020, while imports surged 7.56 per cent to $42.59 billion, official data showed on Friday. The merchandise exports were valued at $27.11 billion in December 2019 while imports had totalled $39.59 billion.
The country's exports grew by 47.19 per cent to $35.17 billion on account of healthy growth in the outbound shipments of petroleum, engineering, and gems and jewellery, according to the provisional data of the commerce ministry. Imports during the month also rose by 59.38 per cent to $46.40 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $11.23 billion. Exports of petroleum, engineering, and gems and jewellery in July increased to $3.82 billion, $2.82 billion and $1.95 billion respectively, the data showed.
While consumers have enjoyed lower fuel prices, producers have cut spending and thousands of jobs
Oil share declines to 9.35 per cent in April-September from 17.23 per cent in the same period of last year.
India's merchandise exports in October surged 42.33 per cent to $35.47 billion on the back of good performance by the engineering and petroleum sectors, as per provisional data released by the government on Monday. The exports stood at $24.92 billion in October 2020 and $26.23 billion in October 2019. "India's merchandise exports in October 2021 was $35.47 billion, an increase of 42.33 per cent over $24.92 billion in October 2020 and an increase of 35.21 per cent over $26.23 billion in October 2019," as per an official statement.
A task force set up by the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (Meity) for transforming India into an "electronic and semiconductor products" nation is on the verge of finalising its report, which is likely to recommend an allocation of Rs 44,000 crore between 2024 and 2030 to support homegrown companies in their quest to develop products and build global brands. The task force's recommendations include significant incentives: Rs 15,000 crore dedicated to electronic products (systems), Rs 11,000 crore for semiconductor products, and Rs 18,000 crore for various other incentives such as talent development, common infrastructure, logistics, and technology & IP (intellectual property) acquisition, a member of the panel revealed.
India, the world's third-biggest oil consumer, has conveyed to OPEC countries its concern over high oil prices that are threatening to impact the nascent economic recovery after the devastating pandemic. New Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has made phone calls to key OPEC nations to convey the desire for an affordable price for consumers. After calling his counterparts in Qatar and the UAE, he called Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kingpin Saudi Arabia on Thursday evening.
The country's exports rose by 48.34 per cent to $32.5 billion on account of healthy growth in shipments of petroleum products, gems and jewellery, and chemicals, leather and marine goods, according to the data released by the Commerce Ministry on Thursday. Imports in June too rose by 98.31 per cent to $41.87 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $9.37 billion as against a trade surplus of $0.79 billion in the same month last year. During April-June 2021, the exports increased by 85.88 per cent to $95.39 billion.
The men with guns tend to know little finance, and establishing such a conspiracy then involves leakage of information, which is also dangerous, Ajay Shah points out.
Genset manufacturer Cummins India has seen its share price rise by 45 per cent in the past three months. The management has reaffirmed that growth would be in double digits over the coming two fiscal years. Growth is expected to be driven by a pickup in domestic infrastructure spending.
Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
The country's exports dipped 8.74 per cent to $23.52 billion in November on account of contraction in shipments of key sectors like petroleum, engineering, chemicals and gems and jewellery, official data showed on Tuesday. Trade deficit during the month narrowed to $9.87 billion as imports too declined by 13.32 per cent to $33.39 billion.
India's exports in January rose 25.28 per cent to $34.50 billion on account of healthy performance by mainly engineering, petroleum and gems and jewellery sectors, even as trade deficit widened to 17.43 billion, according to data released by the commerce ministry on Tuesday. Imports grew by 23.54 per cent to $51.93 billion during the month under review. Trade deficit, difference between imports and exports, stood at $14.50 bn in January 2021.
As stringent sanctions imposed by the European Union and US are crippling business and trade, desperate Russian oil companies are offering huge discounts to India, provided a payment mechanism to bypass the SWIFT ban is quickly approved by the government. According to sources familiar with the development, Russian oil firms are offering 25-27 per cent discount to the dated Brent crude prices. State-run Rosneft is one the biggest oil companies that supply crude to India.
The US hopes India will "reconsider" its decision to ban wheat exports, with Washington "encouraging" countries not to restrict exports as that will exacerbate food shortages, amidst Russia's invasion of Ukraine. India, the world's second-biggest wheat producer, has banned wheat exports in a bid to check high domestic prices amid concerns of wheat output being hit by scorching heat waves. The decision would help control retail prices of wheat and wheat flour, which have risen by an average 14-20 per cent in the last one year, besides meeting the foodgrain requirement of neighbouring and vulnerable countries.
The market responded positively to the Q1 results of oil marketing companies (OMCs), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) despite numbers being weaker than consensus. BPCL's reported gross refining margin (GRM) was in line at $7.9 per barrel (bbl) in Q1FY25, which implies marketing margin stood at Rs 4.8 per litre. Standalone profit after tax or PAT at Rs 3,000 crore was down versus consensus due to under-recoveries in LPG business.
'2019 was fought on delivery. But in 2024, you can see the before and after effects.'
'Indian and Iranian sources both confirmed to me that India and Iran are moving ahead to implement a payment system on buying oil from Iran and hope to finalise it very soon,' says Aveek Sen.
President Ram Nath Kovind on Monday said the country's farm production and procurement increased during 2020-21 crop year despite the pandemic and agricultural exports reached a record level of Rs 3 lakh crore during the same period. In his address to the joint sitting of both Houses of Parliament at the start of the Budget session, Kovind said the government is focusing on making the country self-sufficient in edible oils besides making special efforts to promote organic farming, natural farming and crop diversification. "My government is working continuously to empower the farmers and the rural economy of the country... I would like to give maximum credit to the small farmers of the country for this consistent success and strengthening of the agriculture sector," he said.
With the prediction of an above normal monsoon in 2024, the government is expecting food prices to come down, the finance ministry's monthly economic report for March has said. The report, released on Thursday, said robust foreign inflows and comfortable trade deficits were expected to keep the rupee within a comfortable range. "Further easing of food prices is on the anvil as IMD (India Meteorological Department) has predicted above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, which is likely to lead to higher production, assuming good spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall," the monthly report, released by the Department of Economic Affairs, said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday conveyed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting that India would continue to do everything within its means to support a peaceful solution to the Ukraine conflict and that the way to peace is through 'dialogue and diplomacy'.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum may post a combined loss of Rs 10,700 crore in June quarter on selling petrol and diesel at rates below cost, a report said on Monday. While the raw material (crude oil) prices soared in April-June, petrol and diesel prices were not revised, leading to marketing losses which offset strong refining margins, ICICI Securities said in the report. The three state-owned oil marketing companies -- IOC, BPCL and HPCL -- control 90 per cent of the retail petrol and diesel sales in the country.
Refuting all the allegations, IOC has clarified that no monopolistic situation exists in supply and pricing of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) to airlines.
Stock markets this week would take cues from global trends, the announcement of domestic macroeconomic data such as GDP numbers and foreign fund movement, analysts said. Besides, monthly auto sales and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for manufacturing and services sectors would also influence trading in the market, they added. Benchmark BSE Sensex tumbled 1,538.64 points or 2.52 per cent last week amid concerns that the US Federal Reserve might raise interest rates further to curb inflation.
India and Russia on Tuesday set a target of $100 billion in annual trade volume by 2030 and vowed to develop a robust bilateral payment settlement mechanism using national currencies. The two sides also inked a total of nine agreements to further broadbase cooperation in a range of areas including in the economic domain following summit talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Domestic customers will get access to high-quality Swiss products such as watches, chocolates, biscuits, and clocks at lower prices as India will phase out customs duties under its trade pact with the EFTA bloc on these goods over a period of time. India and the four-European nation bloc EFTA signed a trade and economic partnership agreement (TEPA) on Sunday to boost trade and investments between the two regions. The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) members are Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland.
While prices sustaining lower levels is crucial, Govt actions are also a key monitorable given the forthcoming elections in 2024.
The country's exports declined marginally by 0.8 per cent to $26.89 billion in December 2020, due to contraction in sectors like petroleum, leather and marine products, according to preliminary data released by the commerce ministry on Saturday. The trade deficit in December widened to $15.71 billion, as imports grew by 7.6 per cent to $42.6 billion, the data showed. Export in December 2019 was $27.11 billion, while imports stood at $39.5 billion.
The country's exports rose by 47.34 per cent to $32.46 billion in June on account of healthy growth in sectors such as engineering, gems and jewellery and petroleum products, even as trade deficit aggregated at $9.4 billion during the month, according to the data released by the commerce ministry on Friday. Exports in June last year stood at $22 billion and $25 billion in June 2019. In May 2021, the outward shipment was worth $32.27 billion, while in April this year, it was $31 billion. Imports in June 2021 grew by 96.33 per cent to $41.86 billion, from $21.32 billion in June last year. In June 2019, imports stood at $41 billion.
The country's current account deficit is likely to hit a three-year high of 1.8 per cent or $43.81 billion in FY22, as against a surplus of 0.9 per cent or $23.91 billion in FY21, a report said on Thursday. According to an assessment by India Ratings, the Current Account Deficit (CAD) has moderated to $17.3 billion or 1.96 per cent of GDP in the fourth quarter of FY22 as against $8.2 billion or 1.03 per cent in the year-ago period, and massively down from $23.02 billion or 2.74 per cent in Q3, which was a 13-quarter high. The improvement in the key numbers are due to the remarkable improvement in merchandise exports in FY22, when it grew 42.4 per cent as against a negative 7.5 per cent in the pandemic-hit FY121.
India, the world's third-largest energy consumer and importer, on Wednesday warned of high oil prices hurting the nascent and fragile global economic recovery and floated an idea of long-term supply contracts that provide predictable and stable pricing. Speaking at the India Energy Forum by CERAWeek, Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said there was a mismatch between demand for oil and the supplies producers such as OPEC+ were making and there was a case for raising the production. The world, he said, needs "predictable, stable and affordable" prices for it to recover back to pre-pandemic levels.
India's exports fell for the fourth straight month in June as shipments of key segments like petroleum and textiles declined but the country's trade turned surplus for the first time in 18 years as imports dropped by a steeper 47.59 per cent.
The Budget should use the extra RBI surplus to better effect, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
'If attacks escalate, there is a risk the Suez Canal may be closed.'
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