India's exports declined by 6.86 per cent to $34.48 billion in August this year as against $37.02 billion in the same month last year, government data showed on Friday. Imports too declined by 5.23 per cent to $58.64 billion as against $61.88 billion recorded in August 2022.
India's net oil import bill could widen to $101-104 billion in current fiscal from $96.1 billion in 2023-24 and any escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict could impart an upward pressure on the value of imports, ICRA said on Tuesday. The domestic rating agency said based on its analysis, lower value of Russian oil imports is estimated to have led to savings of $7.9 billion in 11 months (April-February) of 2023-24, up from $5.1 billion in 2022-23.
The protesting farmers' main demand to legalise the minimum support price (MSP) regime has divided opinion. One school of thought says it would lead to crop diversification and help India keep under check its burgeoning import bill on edible oils and pulses, while another says it would incentivise farmers to produce low-quality crops. Contrary to popular perception, India has a trade surplus in agriculture and allied activities, which stood at $18.65 billion during 2022-23 (FY23) against $15.92 billion in the previous year. However, the surplus was mainly on account of rice, wheat, sugar, spices, and buffalo meat.
With India making it clear that the US doesn't have enough spare capacity for crude oil, Washington, DC, now wants India to sign fixed-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts with American producers, multiple sources in the know said.
'That way you're not hostage just to US sort of exports to India.'
Acutely conscious that he's left with less than four years to create his legacy, Trump is undoubtedly a man in a hurry, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'The favourable rupee-dollar exchange rate, there are opportunities we can tap.'
The government will formulate a strategy to make India self-reliant in edible oils by boosting domestic output of oilseeds and launch a comprehensive programme to support dairy farmers, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced on Thursday. India imports a large quantity of edible oils to meet the domestic demand. During the 2022-23 marketing year (November-October), the country imported nearly 165 lakh tonnes of cooking oils, valuing a whopping Rs 1.38 lakh crore.
'I would not suggest buying these stocks in the dip, as the upside in profit is dented without a safety net for a rainy day.'
India and the visiting US officials have decided to hold a wrap-up session on Saturday morning to conclude the three-day talks on the proposed bilateral trade agreement, government sources said. They said the discussions are at a "very" early stage.
Since October, FPIs have offloaded Indian equities worth Rs 2.1 trillion.
The production of oilseeds is characterized by low yields and hovering around 280-300 lakh tonnes only.
Of Trump's reciprocal tariffs and trade deals
In October 2024, Jindal Stainless challenged a Goods and Services Tax (GST) notice in the Delhi high court. It was about corporate guarantees issued to related parties by its former group company, Jindal Stainless (Hisar), before their merger in March 2023.
India maintains "high" import duties on a wide range of American goods such as agricultural items, drug formulations, and alcoholic beverages, besides imposing non-tariif barriers, a US report has said. A day before announcing reciprocal tariffs, the US Trade Representative (USTR) released the 2025 National Trade Estimate (NTE) Report on March 31.
'With the US having entered the war, raising the risks of a wider conflict, those impacts could be even more damaging.'
The Oil prices have surged and surpassed $85 per barrel after several oil producer countries announced surprise cuts in production, TASS Agency reported. According to the Russian News Agency, this is the first time since March 7 that the price of futures contracts of Brent crude oil surged. The price of futures contracts of Brent crude oil for June 2023 delivery on London's ICE surpassed $85 per barrel.
Putin is keen on establishing a good personal rapport with Trump and anchor a meaningful US-Russia partnership, realistic enough to accept that Trump is as good an American president as Russia would ever get, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's steady GDP growth outlook, improved banking sector's financial health and expected interest-rate cuts in 2025 will support credit access for corporates in FY26.
The escalation of conflict in the West Asian region is expected to push already high logistics costs besides hurting trade in sectors such as oil, electronics and agriculture, according to exporters. They said that insurance costs for exports to the countries directly involved in the war could also go up, which will impact Indian exporters' working capital. Think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) stated that the conflict is already hurting India's trade with countries like Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon.
'Geopolitical stability could remove the crude oil risk premium.'
India and the US have decided to hold sector-specific talks in the coming weeks to finalise the structure of the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA), the government said on Saturday. The engagement between the two countries came in the backdrop of the USA's threat to impose reciprocal tariffs on its key trading partners, including India, on April 2.
Investors should avoid making drastic changes to their asset allocation during a market correction.
The decline in exports is mainly on account of poor demand in India's key destinations -- the Europe and the US -- and it may take some more months for the situation to improve. The demand scenario is "not looking very good as far as Europe is concerned, and the US also we have seen a decline in demand. "For the next 2-3 months, I think the demand scenario does not look very optimistic," DGFT (Director General of Foreign Trade) Santosh Kumar Sarangi told reporters.
Indian officials will focus on expanding the country's footprint in oil-rich Siberia when they meet their Russian counterparts at the four-day 7th Eastern Economic Forum beginning Monday in Vladivostok. The two sides will discuss the possibility of joint oil exploration in the area and cooperation in running offshore oil and gas fields Western companies are in the process of exiting, officials said in New Delhi. Pavan Kapoor, India's ambassador to Russia, will lead the official-level talks at the summit scheduled September 5-8.
'Trump is good news for us. Energy poverty is real, and fossil fuels are the answer.'
The underground industry is estimated to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars a year.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
Russia has welcomed India's decision to not support the price cap on Russian oil announced by G7 and its allies and offered it cooperation on leasing and building large-capacity ships to overcome the ban on insurance services and tanker chartering in the European Union and Britain to continue buying discounted oil. The offer came as Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting with the Indian Ambassador to Moscow, Pavan Kapoor, on Friday. "The Deputy Prime Minister welcomed India's decision not to support the price cap on Russian oil, which was imposed on December 5 by the G7 countries and their allies," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.
Trump spoke approvingly of his recent telephone conversation with Xi Jinping. This could indicate the possibility of America and China reaching some level of tactical accommodation, which would not be good news for India, points out Ambassador Shyam Saran, a former foreign secretary.
The President said he made the decision in consultation with European allies but added they may not be in a position to join the US in banning Russian energy imports.
A year after a Hamas attack against Israel on October 7 and the ensuing Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, India's trade with most West Asian countries has largely escaped any major disruption, except with countries like Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan. However, repeated flare-ups of geopolitical tensions in the region continue to drive up shipping and logistics costs.
India's exports contracted 12.2 per cent to $34.48 billion in December 2022, mainly due to global headwinds, and the trade deficit widened to $23.76 billion during the same period, according to official data released on Monday. Imports in December 2022 also declined 3.5 per cent to $58.24 billion as against $60.33 billion in the year-ago period. In December 2021, exports stood at $39.27 billion and the trade deficit was at $21.06 billion.
India's exports entered negative territory after a gap of about two years, declining sharply by 16.65 per cent to $29.78 billion in October, mainly due to global demand slowdown, even as trade deficit widened to $26.91 billion, according to data released by the commerce ministry on Tuesday. Key export sectors, including gems and jewellery, engineering, petroleum products, ready-made garments of all textiles, chemicals, pharma, marine products, and leather, recorded negative growth during October. Imports during the month under review rose by about 6 per cent to $56.69 billion on account of increase in the inbound shipments of crude oil and certain raw materials such as cotton, fertiliser and machinery.
Lower crude oil costs and higher marketing margins are expected to raise the fortunes of oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), while city gas distribution (CGD) companies could also benefit from lower spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, in a break from the past, growth trends are expected to diverge for various segments within the broad energy sector. Analysts expect the earnings from gas production to go down for upstream national oil and gas companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) due to the introduction of the new domestic gas pricing regime on April 1. After showing steep losses over the first half of 2022-23 (FY23), the marketing margins of OMCs have steadily recovered in four months.
'The government has put in a lot of effort to provide infrastructure for the industry.'
Wheat production during the current season is expected to be better than last year provided the weather remains favourable over the next few weeks, said senior industry executives. The weather had turned uncharacteristically hot in the latter half of last month, but owing to strong winds, the chill has returned in the last few days.
The assurance came after a meeting of the Saudi Arabia's Supreme Council for Petroleum and Mineral Affairs, which was chaired by King Abdullah. The meeting, which reviewed world oil market developments, referred to the resolution taken by the last OPEC summit in Riyadh in which leaders said they would manage petroleum resources to ensure sustained development. The summit expressed its satisfaction over the progress of work at new investment projects.
'The government has put in a lot of effort to provide infrastructure for the industry.'
'The market's nervousness ahead of anticipated US tariffs has led to a significant downturn in Indian equities.'
